There has been a lot of discussion lately about the Cowboys Defense, Rob Ryan, and late Cowboys collapses. The defense has steadily eroded over the course of the season, and many are saying that Rob Ryan is "overrated and overmatched" lately. Is that true? The short answer is no, but it's more complicated than that. Let me give you my perspective on the issues that are dragging the Cowboys Defense (and by extension, the entire team) down.
Rob Ryan is a great defensive coordinator. I believe that as strongly today as I did early in the season when I was shocked by the abrupt turnaround of the Cowboys defense. In case anyone has forgotten, the Cowboys defense of 2010 was the worst in franchise history and ranked in the bottom 5 of the NFL. Only the abysmal Houston Texans Defense of 2010 was noticeably worse.
The Cowboys' offseason didn't help matters much, either. Out went Stephen Bowen, their best DE, and he was replaced by Kenyon Coleman who came over from the Browns. Coleman has been solid this year, but Bowen was among the tops at his position in PFF's 2010 grades. Meanwhile, Alan Ball was replaced at FS by Abram Elam. Ball was arguably the worst Safety in the NFL last year, so anybody would've been better than him. Elam hasn't played all that well this year, but he has been mainly valuable from organization and knowledge standpoints. That's the full extent of starter turnover from the worst defense in Cowboys history. I don't care how good a coach is, there's no one out there that can magically make bad players into good players. Can coaches come in a utilize players in a more effective way? Sure. And that's what Ryan has done this year. The Cowboys defense looked like an entire new unit early in the season. The run defense was elite, the secondary was in the upper-half of the NFL, and their stinginess was complimented by an ability to force turnovers. Lately, they are nothing like that. So what has gone wrong?
Many writers are catching onto the fact that Ryan cannot be blamed entirely for the defense's struggles of late. They realize that the defense is basically no different from what it was in 2010, and so why should we expect it to be good? However, no one has addressed the reason why the defense has faded over the duration of the season. So what is the reason for the decline?
Let's talk hypothetically for a minute. Let's say that you are some po-dunk little WAC school and you have a Bowl Game against a national powerhouse. In fact, Boise State-Oklahoma from a few years back is a perfect example. No one thought that Boise State was a better team than Oklahoma, and they probably weren't. But they were able to hang with Oklahoma and ended up winning the game. How? They pulled out every single one of their tricks, and they were able to outweigh their talent deficiencies by out-scheming and confusing their opponent. And that's a sensible strategy. If you're overmatched, what's your best chance of winning? By doing tricky things that the opponent is not ready for.
The point of that little story is that it is a perfect representation of the Cowboys defense this year. They started off the year by having success largely due to their ability to confuse opponents with a "smoke and mirrors" scheme. Opponents were often very confused and were unable to figure out how to attack the defense. However, scheming your way to success can only last for so long. At some point, you run out of new tricks and everyone has seen your full arsenal. At that point, the jig is up and you're going to get burned.
The sneaky blitz that befuddled Matt Stafford early in the season isn't going to work against Eli Manning, because Eli noticed when watching film that one WR was minimally covered. The first time around, the QB is forced to read, react, and solve the problem extremely quickly. He is less aware of things and more focused on not being decapitated by DeMarcus Ware. But down the road, the OL knows what's coming, they can block Ware for an extra half-second, and the QB knows to look for the WR who will be wide open. They hit that play and people say "man, the defense sucks! Rob Ryan is an idiot!" But really, it's the same exact play that forced a turnover a few weeks prior.
So now what do you do? You have no more tricks up your sleeve, because you used them to get to this point. If you hadn't used them, you'd already be out of the Playoff picture. But now, you're screwed because your players are generally below-average and there's no more scheming you can do to help them. Other coaches get paid to. You can't outsmart everyone 19 times in a row. At some point, players have to win their individual battles, and the Cowboys defenders are unable to do that. And that brings us to the heart of the issue: poor talent on defense. You can cover it up with smoke and mirrors for a little while, but that strategy can't work forever. It's a mirage. Unfortunately for Rob Ryan and the rest of the Cowboys organization, until the defense gets upgraded, the Cowboys defense will continue to struggle, because that's what kind of a defense they really are. Ryan did a magnificent job early in the year, but at this point, he's just bailing water out of the boat, much like Wade Phillips was near the end of his tenure in Dallas.
Speaking of Wade, let's look at Wade. He was the constructor of the 2010 Cowboys defense. It was awful, as we know. Did he magically get smarter overnight when he moved to Houston? Because the Texans' defense is one of the best in the league this year after being even worse than the Cowboys last year. The answer is no, he's the same guy he was when he was in Dallas. The difference is that the Texans spent their entire offseason focused on improving their defense. They drafted J.J. Watt, Brooks Reed, Brandon Harris, Rashad Carmichael, and Shiloh Keo with their first 5 picks. They also signed Jonathan Joseph, who Greg Cosell calls the 2nd-best CB in football right now. Daniel Manning also was signed from Chicago, and he was very highly-graded by PFF in 2010. Add those guys to people like Mario Williams, Connor Barwin, DeMeco Ryans, and Brian Cushing, and you've MASSIVELY upgraded your talent. Has Wade helped? Sure, he's a good defensive coordinator. But the main difference is a major disparity in defensive talent. The Texans now have it, and the Cowboys still don't.
Here's my bottom line: don't blame Rob when you haven't given him anything to work with. The Cowboys went extremely offense-heavy in the draft and didn't have any cap room to get premier defenders in free agency. They are stuck in this boat no matter who is the coach. Can Rob Ryan evaluate talent and draft a great crop of defenders in 2012? We'll see. But to this point, Rob Ryan has done nothing but make this defense as good as it possibly can be, so there's no reason to criticize him as a coach. I'm thrilled to have him and I know he'll maximize whatever we have. It's up to the front office to give him a higher starting talent level to maximize though. So if you want to complain about the Cowboys defense, don't talk to Rob. Talk to Garrett, Jerry, and the scouting department. They are in charge of personnel, so they have to take the blame for having bad defensive personnel. That said, I trust that Garrett will continue to build this team and move it in the right direction. It just won't be a finished product this year, or maybe even next year, and fans need to understand that. It's a "process" as Garrett says, and we have to follow the process to its conclusion. In Year 1 of Garrett, I am very encouraged by the team, and I look forward to many more years of Garrett-led enjoyment.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Shutdown Corner Week 15 Preview Podcast with Greg Cosell
Here are the things that really interested me. If you want the full story, listen for yourself here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/The-Shutdown-Corner-Week-15-Preview-Podcast-with?urn=nfl-wp13946
Cosell says that the Cowboys have been playing a lot of many lately, and "at some point, you have to win your matchups." I agree. Only so much Rob Ryan can do. Problem is the secondary just being flat-out beat.''
Cosell LOVES Sean Lee. Says he's basically carrying the Cowboys' ILBs and that Bradie James and Keith Brooking are really struggling (never heard that before... sigh...).
Greg says that right now, Jonathan Joseph is the 2nd-best man CB in the NFL, only behind Revis. I agree.
Poise is the name of the game for T.J. Yates, Greg says. He's already doing a lot of the little things right, and it allows him to be successful already in his young NFL career. Cosell says Yates' 4th Quarter performance was the most impressive of Week 14. Eat your hearts out, Eli and Tebow.
Greg says he is continually impressed with Cedric Benson. Views him as a foundation back who can carry a big load and succeed.
Jennings is the one receiver on the Packers who can win vertically against man coverage when left in isolation, Cosell thinks. Says other WRs generally make their deep plays as a result of playing in combination with other receivers. That's a nice way of saying "system guys" in my opinion.
Part of the Raiders' unraveling lately is Palmer's fault, and Greg says the issue is that he is a very rhythm-based passer who hasn't been able to get into his rhythm lately.
Cosell says that young QBs always look better when they have mobility. Says the real test for Tebow will be down the road. In Year 4, will Tebow still be as effective as he is today? Good question.
Greg Cosell cannot speak highly enough about Patrick Peterson. Says he's being trusted like Deion was, and similar to how Revis is trusted nowadays. Daryl Washington gets big praise for his play as a LB.
Rob Gronkowski is 275 pounds. Just think about that.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/The-Shutdown-Corner-Week-15-Preview-Podcast-with?urn=nfl-wp13946
Cosell says that the Cowboys have been playing a lot of many lately, and "at some point, you have to win your matchups." I agree. Only so much Rob Ryan can do. Problem is the secondary just being flat-out beat.''
Cosell LOVES Sean Lee. Says he's basically carrying the Cowboys' ILBs and that Bradie James and Keith Brooking are really struggling (never heard that before... sigh...).
Greg says that right now, Jonathan Joseph is the 2nd-best man CB in the NFL, only behind Revis. I agree.
Poise is the name of the game for T.J. Yates, Greg says. He's already doing a lot of the little things right, and it allows him to be successful already in his young NFL career. Cosell says Yates' 4th Quarter performance was the most impressive of Week 14. Eat your hearts out, Eli and Tebow.
Greg says he is continually impressed with Cedric Benson. Views him as a foundation back who can carry a big load and succeed.
Jennings is the one receiver on the Packers who can win vertically against man coverage when left in isolation, Cosell thinks. Says other WRs generally make their deep plays as a result of playing in combination with other receivers. That's a nice way of saying "system guys" in my opinion.
Part of the Raiders' unraveling lately is Palmer's fault, and Greg says the issue is that he is a very rhythm-based passer who hasn't been able to get into his rhythm lately.
Cosell says that young QBs always look better when they have mobility. Says the real test for Tebow will be down the road. In Year 4, will Tebow still be as effective as he is today? Good question.
Greg Cosell cannot speak highly enough about Patrick Peterson. Says he's being trusted like Deion was, and similar to how Revis is trusted nowadays. Daryl Washington gets big praise for his play as a LB.
Rob Gronkowski is 275 pounds. Just think about that.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Tim Tebow vs. KC Week 10 2011
Pass-by-pass breakdown of Tim Tebow:
Pass #1: Deep ball to Eric Decker, out of I-Form. PA. A little underthrown, but very catchable ball. Decker drops it.
Pass #2: Deep ball to Eddie Royal, out of I-Form. PA. Ugly ball, but hit Royal. Right on the very edge of his reach, would've been a tough grab, and CB had one of his arms held. No chance with one hand, but with two he may have been able to snag it (would've been a great catch though, for sure).
Pass #3: Deep ball to Eric Decker, out of I-Form. PA. Underthrown or it's a TD. Instead, whap.
Pass #4: Option shuffle pass to Eddie Royal, behind the LOS. Royal didn't seem ready for it, hit him in the chest and fell to the ground.
Pass #5: Checkdown to Lance Ball in the flat. RB drops it upon defender contact. Not a hard hit, either.
Pass #6: WR Screen, thrown behind LOS. Caught, 12 yard gain.
Pass #7: Awful, awful throw. landed 5 yards in front of WR on short out. Just abysmal.
Pass #8: Beautiful deep ball to Decker. Long TD.
Final Tally:
1 WR Screen completion
1 Deep Ball TD
3 drops
1 borderline overthrow, borderline DPI
1 Underthrow
1 LOL Rec Center throw
Not as bad as the stat sheet would indicate, but not good, either.
Pass #1: Deep ball to Eric Decker, out of I-Form. PA. A little underthrown, but very catchable ball. Decker drops it.
Pass #2: Deep ball to Eddie Royal, out of I-Form. PA. Ugly ball, but hit Royal. Right on the very edge of his reach, would've been a tough grab, and CB had one of his arms held. No chance with one hand, but with two he may have been able to snag it (would've been a great catch though, for sure).
Pass #3: Deep ball to Eric Decker, out of I-Form. PA. Underthrown or it's a TD. Instead, whap.
Pass #4: Option shuffle pass to Eddie Royal, behind the LOS. Royal didn't seem ready for it, hit him in the chest and fell to the ground.
Pass #5: Checkdown to Lance Ball in the flat. RB drops it upon defender contact. Not a hard hit, either.
Pass #6: WR Screen, thrown behind LOS. Caught, 12 yard gain.
Pass #7: Awful, awful throw. landed 5 yards in front of WR on short out. Just abysmal.
Pass #8: Beautiful deep ball to Decker. Long TD.
Final Tally:
1 WR Screen completion
1 Deep Ball TD
3 drops
1 borderline overthrow, borderline DPI
1 Underthrow
1 LOL Rec Center throw
Not as bad as the stat sheet would indicate, but not good, either.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Shutdown Corner Week 10 Preview Podcast with Greg Cosell
Cosell discussed the Raiders' defensive performance against the Broncos with Ron Jaworski this week, and Jaws asked him "did the Raiders practice last week?" Both were appalled by how poorly they played against the Option. Cosell also note that Tebow attempted 6 passes in the second half. What a "winner."
Greg says that the Texans are flat-out a running team now, and they look just as dominant as the legendary running teams that Mike Shanahan had in Denver. Lots of credit to the dominant OL.
Nnamdi Asomugha plays three positions according to Cosell, but only one of them well, and that's press man. Not a slot guy, not a zone guy. Greg not really impressed with Nnamdi overall. Great corner, but only in one aspect of the position.
Cosell is not sold on Haynesworth. Says he's recently looked worse than ever before in his career.
The Titans defense is playing baaaad football right now. They started pretty hot this year, but have just collapsed lately.
Cosell heaps praise on Reggie Bush's recent performances, saying "he looks like the player we expected coming out of USC."
On Roy Helu's performance last week, Cosell says "when have you ever seen a 14 catch game in which the guy really had zero impact on the game?" Says Helu is a straight-line runner who isn't that great of a talent, but he's better than a one-kneed Hightower (obviously) and better than Ryan Torain. Says his success will be scheme-driven.
Greg doesn't think Blaine Gabbert has an NFL future. Says he's not sure discomfort in the pocket and reacting to pressure than isn't there on a consistent basis can be overcome, and unless it is, Gabbert will never be better than he is now. Says Gabbert has a great arm, but he falls away from throws unnecessarily and is struggling because of it.
Cosell notes that certain teams, such as the Steelers, Giants, Jets, and Eagles have made philosophical decisions that they will do everything that they can to take away the pass, and if you want to run, go ahead. Says that unlike the first three teams, the Eagles just can't execute well enough against the run for that idea to be successful. You can't take away the pass and get gashed in the run, or the idea doesn't work. But if you can contain the run enough to not have it kill you, it's a really effective strategy in today's NFL.
In regards to Tebow, Greg basically says expect a poor man's Michael Vick, both in running and passing. I know there are some Vick critics out there who aren't fans of his at all, and if you don't like Vick, you REALLY won't like Tim Tebow. Inferior runner and passer, so imagine the Broncos as being less successful than Vick's Falcons were. That's not exactly the kind of success you want to have.
Greg loves Leon Hall, but doesn't consider him to be a shutdown corner. He loves Bengals DC Mike Zimmer too. Says he does a fantastic job of disguising pressure.
Praise for Bears' DL Idonije. Peppers and he are a great combo.
Greg says that the Texans are flat-out a running team now, and they look just as dominant as the legendary running teams that Mike Shanahan had in Denver. Lots of credit to the dominant OL.
Nnamdi Asomugha plays three positions according to Cosell, but only one of them well, and that's press man. Not a slot guy, not a zone guy. Greg not really impressed with Nnamdi overall. Great corner, but only in one aspect of the position.
Cosell is not sold on Haynesworth. Says he's recently looked worse than ever before in his career.
The Titans defense is playing baaaad football right now. They started pretty hot this year, but have just collapsed lately.
Cosell heaps praise on Reggie Bush's recent performances, saying "he looks like the player we expected coming out of USC."
On Roy Helu's performance last week, Cosell says "when have you ever seen a 14 catch game in which the guy really had zero impact on the game?" Says Helu is a straight-line runner who isn't that great of a talent, but he's better than a one-kneed Hightower (obviously) and better than Ryan Torain. Says his success will be scheme-driven.
Greg doesn't think Blaine Gabbert has an NFL future. Says he's not sure discomfort in the pocket and reacting to pressure than isn't there on a consistent basis can be overcome, and unless it is, Gabbert will never be better than he is now. Says Gabbert has a great arm, but he falls away from throws unnecessarily and is struggling because of it.
Cosell notes that certain teams, such as the Steelers, Giants, Jets, and Eagles have made philosophical decisions that they will do everything that they can to take away the pass, and if you want to run, go ahead. Says that unlike the first three teams, the Eagles just can't execute well enough against the run for that idea to be successful. You can't take away the pass and get gashed in the run, or the idea doesn't work. But if you can contain the run enough to not have it kill you, it's a really effective strategy in today's NFL.
In regards to Tebow, Greg basically says expect a poor man's Michael Vick, both in running and passing. I know there are some Vick critics out there who aren't fans of his at all, and if you don't like Vick, you REALLY won't like Tim Tebow. Inferior runner and passer, so imagine the Broncos as being less successful than Vick's Falcons were. That's not exactly the kind of success you want to have.
Greg loves Leon Hall, but doesn't consider him to be a shutdown corner. He loves Bengals DC Mike Zimmer too. Says he does a fantastic job of disguising pressure.
Praise for Bears' DL Idonije. Peppers and he are a great combo.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Tyron Smith vs. NYJ Week 1 2011
Here's my breakdown of Tyron Smith's Week 1 performance against the Jets.
First snap, Tyron Smith needs to finish better. Had great position against his man who was rushing left as Tony was rolling right, but let him pull a spin move and get behind him. Didn't matter in the play, but you have got to play to the whistle and anticipate the moves of the DL. Obviously he's going to want to stop going left and start going right to follow Tony, so know that and prevent it.
I said this in my preseason Film Studies of Tyron Smith, but when he gets his hands on you in the run game, he WILL move you. And this guy is still growing into his body. Scary.
When pulling and in space, needs to have better concept of who to block. Tried to block the same guy as another blocker, and by the time he adapted and looked elsewhere, the play was over and he had blocked no one.
That said, Tyron gets to the second level very well. Has the mobility needed to get there and a knack for finding a way to shuffle through the trash.
Smith moves DL successfully, and LBs are absolutely no match for him.
Read the blitz better, man. Looked like he did what the scheme called for to focus inside the pocket, but he literally has his back turned to the blitzing CB who comes late and disrupts Tony's throw.
"Smarts" is Smith's main problem from what I can see. Another example of looking inside and letting the edge rusher come free. Jets are a tough task to handle, for sure, but that doesn't preclude you from playing smart.
Random thought: Kevin Ogletree ran a great route against Darrelle Revis to create space on 3rd and 6. Caught the slant for the first down. He must be doing a lot of this on plays when he's not targeted to still be on the roster.
Another random thought: DeMarco Murray caught a screen pass, and he was extremely slow in terms of turning upfield. Like a 50 acceleration in Madden. This is what I think Greg Cosell was talking about.
Bryan Broaddus, former Cowboys scout who now is part of the media, has noted that when Tyron Smith gets beat, it tends to be when he overextends wide and the rusher gets inside. That just happened on the Murray screen pass I was talking about. Not an issue on this play, but definitely something that has caused problems in other spots.
Random thought: John Phillips just did more as a receiving TE on one play than Martellus Bennett has done all year. Caught a pass in the flat, plowed over a LB, and got a first down. Should've been stopped for no gain. Give Phillips more chances!
Another play where Smith blocks inside and lets the edge guy come free. Caused incompletion.
Great body positioning by Smith in run blocking. As he is blocking, he rotates so that he is always directly between the defender and the runner. Really nice play.
Nice job of locating the edge rusher, Tyron. See, you can get the hang of this!
Tyron needs to finish the play better. He shoves his man instead of engaging him and his man goes on to force the Romo goal line fumble. Finish the block, win the game, Tyron!
Overall, I was impressed with Tyron Smith. The mental side of his game needs work, but it improved as the game progressed, which is good to see. He needs to work on short yardage blocking. I noticed that he didn't get the same push in the run game when it was short yardage as when it was a regular run play. Obviously that's a technique issue, because the strength is clearly there. He handles wide rushes very well, but needs work on stopping inside rushers. At worst, he is a solid RT who shows flashes of dominance in certain areas, and for a rookie starter who didn't have any real offseason programs, I'll take that for sure.
First snap, Tyron Smith needs to finish better. Had great position against his man who was rushing left as Tony was rolling right, but let him pull a spin move and get behind him. Didn't matter in the play, but you have got to play to the whistle and anticipate the moves of the DL. Obviously he's going to want to stop going left and start going right to follow Tony, so know that and prevent it.
I said this in my preseason Film Studies of Tyron Smith, but when he gets his hands on you in the run game, he WILL move you. And this guy is still growing into his body. Scary.
When pulling and in space, needs to have better concept of who to block. Tried to block the same guy as another blocker, and by the time he adapted and looked elsewhere, the play was over and he had blocked no one.
That said, Tyron gets to the second level very well. Has the mobility needed to get there and a knack for finding a way to shuffle through the trash.
Smith moves DL successfully, and LBs are absolutely no match for him.
Read the blitz better, man. Looked like he did what the scheme called for to focus inside the pocket, but he literally has his back turned to the blitzing CB who comes late and disrupts Tony's throw.
"Smarts" is Smith's main problem from what I can see. Another example of looking inside and letting the edge rusher come free. Jets are a tough task to handle, for sure, but that doesn't preclude you from playing smart.
Random thought: Kevin Ogletree ran a great route against Darrelle Revis to create space on 3rd and 6. Caught the slant for the first down. He must be doing a lot of this on plays when he's not targeted to still be on the roster.
Another random thought: DeMarco Murray caught a screen pass, and he was extremely slow in terms of turning upfield. Like a 50 acceleration in Madden. This is what I think Greg Cosell was talking about.
Bryan Broaddus, former Cowboys scout who now is part of the media, has noted that when Tyron Smith gets beat, it tends to be when he overextends wide and the rusher gets inside. That just happened on the Murray screen pass I was talking about. Not an issue on this play, but definitely something that has caused problems in other spots.
Random thought: John Phillips just did more as a receiving TE on one play than Martellus Bennett has done all year. Caught a pass in the flat, plowed over a LB, and got a first down. Should've been stopped for no gain. Give Phillips more chances!
Another play where Smith blocks inside and lets the edge guy come free. Caused incompletion.
Great body positioning by Smith in run blocking. As he is blocking, he rotates so that he is always directly between the defender and the runner. Really nice play.
Nice job of locating the edge rusher, Tyron. See, you can get the hang of this!
Tyron needs to finish the play better. He shoves his man instead of engaging him and his man goes on to force the Romo goal line fumble. Finish the block, win the game, Tyron!
Overall, I was impressed with Tyron Smith. The mental side of his game needs work, but it improved as the game progressed, which is good to see. He needs to work on short yardage blocking. I noticed that he didn't get the same push in the run game when it was short yardage as when it was a regular run play. Obviously that's a technique issue, because the strength is clearly there. He handles wide rushes very well, but needs work on stopping inside rushers. At worst, he is a solid RT who shows flashes of dominance in certain areas, and for a rookie starter who didn't have any real offseason programs, I'll take that for sure.
Shutdown Corner Week 9 Preview Podcast with Greg Cosell
Here are the things that intrigued me in Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar's discussions (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/The-Shutdown-Corner-Week-9-Preview-Podcast-with-?urn=nfl-wp11065):
Greg had a 3rd Round grade on Chiefs DE Tyson Jackson, who went #3 overall to the Chiefs and has been a massive disappointment to this point. "A glorified 'try hard' guy." Ouch. Jackson has come on lately, but still isn't exactly a great player. Cosell says he could certainly end up having a solid career, but I think that's still bust-worthy for a #3 overall pick.
When Doug asked if Cosell could point to one thing to give Dolphins fans hope in their game against the Chiefs this Sunday, Cosell responded simply, but brutally, with "No."
Greg thinks that Curtis Painter has a good chance of becoming a starting-caliber NFL QB. Really likes what he's seeing from Painter this year, despite Colts' suckage.
Cosell says "at his best, from a physical talent standpoint, Dez Bryant is a Top 3 WR."
When Farrar mentioned that Sean Lee is out for the Seahawks game, Cosell's reaction was "oh boy..." Cosell then went on a mini-rant about how bad Bradie James and Keith Brooking are. Thanks for confirming what I see, Greg.
Cosell heaps praise on Jim Harbaugh for "manufacturing offense." Says that 49ers O is just as untalented as ever, but Harbaugh is scheming them to success to an extreme degree. Inventive playcalls, but also minimizing risk.
Greg seemingly wouldn't be opposed to shutting Chris Johnson down for the season. Says he brings nothing to the table right now. Absolutely believes Javon Ringer should be the workhorse in Tennessee.
Great discussion about QBs and QB attributes that I'm not going to get into here. Too much info, just listen for yourself if you want to hear it.
Eli Manning is a "high-level system player" according to Greg, or in easy terms, "great but not elite." Cosell credits him with being very smart, orchestrating a lot at the line, including the run game.
Cosell says "Kevin Kolb is everything we say Tim Tebow is." Basically, doesn't throw the ball well, but has all of the non-physical attributes (intangibles). Interesting.
Look out for O'Brien Schofield, says Greg. Who? Backup OLB in Arizona.
Cosell thinks Jason Peters is the best LT in football so far this year.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Shutdown Corner Week 8 Preview Podcast with Greg Cosell
Here are the highlights from another awesome hour of knowledge from Greg Cosell with host Doug Farrar. If you'd like to give it a listen yourself, here's the link: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/The-Shutdown-Corner-Week-8-Preview-Podcast-with-?urn=nfl-wp10514
- Greg is not a DeMarco Murray believer. He views him as a straight-line runner who lacks lateral agility. He cited one play in which Murray ran wide and "needed 5 or 6 steps" to change direction back towards the inside. There are two possible plays that Cosell could be referring to, and I think he is overstating his point. I would agree that Murray didn't burst with change of direction on either play, but the one was a blocking breakdown and the other I would say showed some good vision and patience. I will be interested to see more of Murray in the future and see if his lateral agility is truly problematic as Cosell believes it to be. Having just watched all of Murray's carries back-to-back, I will say that a lot of his runs were one-cut or no-cut. There weren't really any LeSean McCoy or Wes Welker-esque stop/start short-area burst runs. What Murray does have going for him though, is a fantastic size/speed combination. His 4.37 40 yard dash time, combined with his 213-pound build, gives him a fantastic Speed Score of 113. This is evident in the Rams game, where he was able to both outrun people and also knock them over. I believe Murray has a real shot at becoming something special.
- Doug and Greg discussed Josh Freeman's struggles (again). Freeman's QB coach apparently came out and said that Freeman needs to be more fundamentally sound on his throws. Cosell disagrees, citing poor decision-making as the problem. The bottom line is that Freeman has not played well this year and Cosell thinks that you have to start having serious concerns about him if he continues to struggle the way he has so far.
- A minor, but intriguing storyline that's popped up lately is that of the Chiefs' resurgence. Cosell says that the big change lately is that their defense is finally playing well. He says that the light appears to be finally coming on for former #3 overall pick Tyson Jackson, who to this point has been a massive bust. LB Derrick Johnson also gets credit from Cosell for being a very good player who often goes unnoticed.
- Kevin Kolb is not a starting-caliber QB in Greg's opinion, largely due to his inability to function with bodies around him. Cosell says that this was a concern in Philadelphia and one that potentially could've been fixed with coaching, but Kolb just has never progressed. Lack of arm strength and "an inability to make stick throws" also plague Kolb.
- Cosell LOVES Christian Ponder. He says that Ponder's ability to throw while on the run is fantastic, and that the Vikings use of roll-outs and PA is absolutely playing right to his strengths. Cosell says that while Ponder doesn't have a cannon, he is a smart, mobile, and accurate QB who has enough arm strength to be functional.
- Greg pulls no punches with the Dolphins, stating that both of their Safeties are "not starting-caliber NFL players" and that LBs Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett are playing poorly this season.
- Matt Stafford is quietly regressing as the season goes on, Cosell says. "You look at his arm [strength], and it's so impressive that it's easy to overlook his deficiencies." Greg thinks it's no coincidence that the Lions have experienced a losing slide lately given what he sees from Stafford, because their running game is not one that can be relied on.
- Cosell says that Brady has scored 8 TDs (7 pass, 1 rush), thrown 0 INTs, and is completing 70% of his passes against the Steelers since 2007. Unreal.
- Greg says that the Bengals' usage of Andy Dalton is phenomenal so far. They recognize his strengths and weaknesses, and they cater to them. Tons of throws that only travel about 10 yards in the air.
- Cosell is not a Cam Cameron fan. He thought that the route concepts utilized by the Ravens offense was like watching "prehistoric football." He isn't a Joe Flacco fan from what I inferred, but he did say that the Ravens' WRs are not doing him any favors, and neither is Cam Cameron. Cosell says that Anquan Boldin is a "guy who thrives in the Slot, and isn't really an outside guy." Ouch.
EDIT: I loved Cosell's analogy of run defense and pitching. He said that you can achieve run defense by scheme alone to a certain extent, but at some point, you have to be able to get off blocks and win one-on-one matchups. Cosell likens this to pitching, saying that you can do a lot of different things to get by with a problematic pitcher, but at some point, he's going to have to throw a fastball and he's going to have to be able to be at least somewhat successful with it. If you can't win one-on-one matchups, or if you can't throw a good fastball, you're really just fighting a losing battle, and there's nothing that scheme can do to fix that.
- Greg is not a DeMarco Murray believer. He views him as a straight-line runner who lacks lateral agility. He cited one play in which Murray ran wide and "needed 5 or 6 steps" to change direction back towards the inside. There are two possible plays that Cosell could be referring to, and I think he is overstating his point. I would agree that Murray didn't burst with change of direction on either play, but the one was a blocking breakdown and the other I would say showed some good vision and patience. I will be interested to see more of Murray in the future and see if his lateral agility is truly problematic as Cosell believes it to be. Having just watched all of Murray's carries back-to-back, I will say that a lot of his runs were one-cut or no-cut. There weren't really any LeSean McCoy or Wes Welker-esque stop/start short-area burst runs. What Murray does have going for him though, is a fantastic size/speed combination. His 4.37 40 yard dash time, combined with his 213-pound build, gives him a fantastic Speed Score of 113. This is evident in the Rams game, where he was able to both outrun people and also knock them over. I believe Murray has a real shot at becoming something special.
- Doug and Greg discussed Josh Freeman's struggles (again). Freeman's QB coach apparently came out and said that Freeman needs to be more fundamentally sound on his throws. Cosell disagrees, citing poor decision-making as the problem. The bottom line is that Freeman has not played well this year and Cosell thinks that you have to start having serious concerns about him if he continues to struggle the way he has so far.
- A minor, but intriguing storyline that's popped up lately is that of the Chiefs' resurgence. Cosell says that the big change lately is that their defense is finally playing well. He says that the light appears to be finally coming on for former #3 overall pick Tyson Jackson, who to this point has been a massive bust. LB Derrick Johnson also gets credit from Cosell for being a very good player who often goes unnoticed.
- Kevin Kolb is not a starting-caliber QB in Greg's opinion, largely due to his inability to function with bodies around him. Cosell says that this was a concern in Philadelphia and one that potentially could've been fixed with coaching, but Kolb just has never progressed. Lack of arm strength and "an inability to make stick throws" also plague Kolb.
- Cosell LOVES Christian Ponder. He says that Ponder's ability to throw while on the run is fantastic, and that the Vikings use of roll-outs and PA is absolutely playing right to his strengths. Cosell says that while Ponder doesn't have a cannon, he is a smart, mobile, and accurate QB who has enough arm strength to be functional.
- Greg pulls no punches with the Dolphins, stating that both of their Safeties are "not starting-caliber NFL players" and that LBs Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett are playing poorly this season.
- Matt Stafford is quietly regressing as the season goes on, Cosell says. "You look at his arm [strength], and it's so impressive that it's easy to overlook his deficiencies." Greg thinks it's no coincidence that the Lions have experienced a losing slide lately given what he sees from Stafford, because their running game is not one that can be relied on.
- Cosell says that Brady has scored 8 TDs (7 pass, 1 rush), thrown 0 INTs, and is completing 70% of his passes against the Steelers since 2007. Unreal.
- Greg says that the Bengals' usage of Andy Dalton is phenomenal so far. They recognize his strengths and weaknesses, and they cater to them. Tons of throws that only travel about 10 yards in the air.
- Cosell is not a Cam Cameron fan. He thought that the route concepts utilized by the Ravens offense was like watching "prehistoric football." He isn't a Joe Flacco fan from what I inferred, but he did say that the Ravens' WRs are not doing him any favors, and neither is Cam Cameron. Cosell says that Anquan Boldin is a "guy who thrives in the Slot, and isn't really an outside guy." Ouch.
EDIT: I loved Cosell's analogy of run defense and pitching. He said that you can achieve run defense by scheme alone to a certain extent, but at some point, you have to be able to get off blocks and win one-on-one matchups. Cosell likens this to pitching, saying that you can do a lot of different things to get by with a problematic pitcher, but at some point, he's going to have to throw a fastball and he's going to have to be able to be at least somewhat successful with it. If you can't win one-on-one matchups, or if you can't throw a good fastball, you're really just fighting a losing battle, and there's nothing that scheme can do to fix that.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Tim Tebow vs. MIA Week 7 2011
The following is a play-by-play breakdown of Tim Tebow's performance against the Dolphins. At the end, I give a summary of my thoughts on him as a player based on my evaluation. I am not an expert QB scout by any means, but I feel like I have a decent grasp on what to look for and what should be expected of an NFL QB. So without further adieu...
Pass Play #1 (2nd and 7): Shotgun, empty-set. Free rusher pressures Tebow, instead of eluding (as he should be able to do), he starts retreating backwards and throws a weak and inaccurate pass off of his back foot. Inaccuracy prevented potential Pick-6. Horrible mechanics, horrible decision.
Pass Play #2 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 3WRs, TE-RB flankers. PA. Looks downfield, then pump fakes and steps forward through collapsing pocket. Good pressure awareness. Runs for 13 yards. Designed pass, didn’t choose to throw. All-22 shows that Tebow had a WR WIDE OPEN 20 yard down the middle of the field. There was literally no one within 10 yards of him in any direction. Missed opportunity for a huge play.
Pass Play #3 (2nd and 11): Shotgun, 3WRs, TE-RB flankers. PA roll-out left. Slot WR and LWR comeback both viable options, but Tebow opts not to throw and instead takes a 1 yard gain on the ground. TE looked like first read, but he was blanketed. That caused breakdown in play.
Pass Play #4 (3rd and 10): Shotgun, 3WRs, TE-RB flankers. Hits Slot WR on Slant-Stop route over the middle. Throw a little low, somewhat weak.
Pass Play #5 (2nd and 12): Shotgun, 4 WRs, RB flanker. Pumps to RWR running screen, then does a weird 360 spin, then throws falling-away jump pass to RB Screen. Throw high, slowed RB down, lost potential yardage (not much though).
Pass Play #6 (3rd and 11): Shotgun, empty-set. Tebow has time to read and make a throw, doesn’t, then does 360 spin to avoid rusher. Pressure soon sacks him for 6 yard loss. TE came open early, WR came open late, and All-22 shows another WR came open in between. That last option I mentioned was WIDE OPEN in the Endzone. Missed long TD opportunity. All 3 options were viable in my opinion. Sack causes 49-yard FG instead of 43-yard FG. FG is missed. Dumb play on Tebow’s part. If nothing else, should’ve thrown ball away, but the lack of positive yardage when he had 3 good options is inexcusable.
Broncos have run 14 offensive plays thus-far. 0 passes with Tebow under center.
Pass Play #7 (2nd and 6): I-Form, 2WR, 2RB, TE. PA. Quickly flushed left by rusher, nice touch pass to RB safety valve. Great accuracy while on the run. Led RB perfectly to allow for YAC, ensured that trailing defender had no shot at whap/INT.
On the next play, McGahee gains 12 yards from Singleback set. While I can’t say that the fact that Tebow actually attempted a pass from under center on the previous play had an influence on the poor run D, it theoretically could’ve helped soften up the defense some. Instead of playing 100% run when Tebow is under center, the defense now must respect the pass as well to a certain degree, and that should help the run game.
Pass Play #8 (2nd and 10): I-Form, 2WR, 2RB, TE. PA. Lots of time in the pocket. Throw is basically a deep out (25 yard throw to left sideline). WR reached out for it, but dropped the pass. I believe that it was a catchable ball though, and given the difficulty of the throw, heck of a pass by Tebow. Velocity was not very good, but accuracy was great.
Pass Play #9 (3rd and 10): Shotgun, 3WR, TE, RB flanker. Late Safety blitz hits Tebow as he’s throwing, short pop-up ball should’ve been picked by LB, but was dropped. Referees calls RTP for hit to Tebow’s head. Slow release was a problem. I believe that a quick-release QB would’ve gotten the ball out without issue.
Pass Play #10 (1st and 10): I-Form, 2WR, 2RB, TE. PA. RB Screen. Tebow throws the pass badly over RB’s head. Broncos called for ineligible man downfield, which was due to the pass taking too long to come out (OL ran downfield to block after waiting a set amount of time). That said, Tebow had to wait for RB to come open. Timing issue not his fault.
Pass Play #11 (2nd and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Poor mechanics, throws ball as he’s falling away. Despite that, the Short In is complete for a 5 yard gain. Holding on RT negates the play.
Pass Play #12 (2nd and 20): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. After holding onto the ball for too long, he shows Vick-like elusiveness in the pocket. Escapes and runs for 21 yard gain. Really impressive run. All-22 shows some open downfield WRs though. If he’s going to be a QB, he needs to be able to find and make the throws that are available.
Pass Play #13 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Delayed blitz sacks Tebow for a loss of 8 yards. RB checkdown seemed viable even with pressure. Would’ve taken a quick release though, and that’s not something he has.
Pass Play #14 (2nd and 18): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. A couple options were open for short gains, but time in the first half is winding down so smart to not throw and have them get tackled inbounds. Tucks and runs out of bounds for 4 yard gain.
Pass Play #15 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 2WR, TE, 2RB flankers. Deep throw lands about 10 yards to the left of the WR. Ugly looking ball, overly arched to accommodate for lack of arm strength in my opinion. Looked like WR kind of stopped on the route and also seemed like a QB/WR miscommunication. That said, other WR was WIDE OPEN over the middle, just underneath targeted WR. Could’ve been a 20+ yard gain. Not good vision so far.
Pass Play #16 (3rd and 4): Shotgun, 3WR, 2RB flankers. If any WRs were open, they were downfield and off camera. Sacked for loss of 5 yards.
Pass Play #17 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Throws deep, out of bounds. Poor decision, poor throw. WR not open, two underneath routes were open.
Pass Play #18 (3rd and 8): Shotgun, 3WR, 2RB flankers. Throws deep, WR very open, but not wide open. Overthrown by 5 yards. Would’ve been a TD. Very poor throw. Also had man very open underneath as well. If you can’t make the long throw, at least take the short one for the easy First Down.
Pass Play #19 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 2WR, 2TE, RB flanker. WR open short over the middle, Tebow throws the ball away.
Pass Play #20 (3rd and 11): Shotgun, 3WR, 2RB flanker. Throws deep for WR Corner, but falling away from pressure as he throws. Ball lands just short of diving WR. Given the fact that the ball actually traveled pretty far downfield despite Tebow getting crushed as he threw it, not a bad effort. Still incomplete though.
Pass Play #21 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Throws short comeback route to WR on left sideline. Ball literally hits WR in chest and bounces off. Can’t fault Tebow this time.
Pass Play #22 (2nd and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Easy throw over the middle to wide open WR. Dolphins showing signs of prevent mode, so short throws will come easy. That said, throw was on time and accurate. 16 yard gain.
Pass Play #23 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Worst throw of the day. WR WIDE OPEN on sideline, ball goes probably 10 yards over his head, out of bounds. Awful, just awful. Would’ve been a 30+ yard gain easily given how open he was.
Pass Play #24 (2nd and 10): Shotgun, 3WR, TE, RB flanker. Hesitates to throw short ball, flushed out of pocket to his left, throws to TE who’s about 15 yards downfield. Ball is short and wide. Another really poor throw.
Pass Play #25 (3rd and 10): Shotgun, 3WR, 2RB flankers. Sacked fairly quickly for loss of 5 yards. All-22 shows that nobody was open.
The Broncos now have the ball with 5:23 left in the 4th Quarter, down 15-0.
Pass Play #26 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Throws the Deep Comeback, accurate, but not a lot of velocity. Gain of 15.
Pass Play #27 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Throws short checkdown to RB, gain of 9, tackled inbounds.
Pass Play #28 (2nd and 1): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Nobody open on screen, Tebow looking downfield for big play. Not there, pressured, throws away as he’s hit.
Pass Play #29 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Beautiful pass to hit the WR in stride on the Deep In. Allowed for HUGE YAC. About a 20 yard throw is good for 43 yards thanks to good WR effort but also a great pass.
Pass Play #30 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Broken play, Tebow started walking forward to call out protection to OL, ball is snapped. Tebow flustered and sacked, loss of 6.
Pass Play #31 (2nd and 16): Shotgun, empty set. Looks downfield, then decides to tuck and run. Gets out of bounds, gain of 13.
Pass Play #32 (3rd and 3): Shotgun, empty set. Eludes dead-to-rights sack, flushed out to his right, makes a tough throw (running to his right and throwing to his right with his left). Almost led WR too much, but WR makes the diving grab for the TD.
With 2:43 left, the Broncos elect to Onside Kick. They are trailing 15-7 and have no timeouts. Miami fumbles the catch and the Broncos recover. Of course.
Pass Play #33 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Short Comeback to WR, gain of 7. WR cuts inside and is tackled inbounds.
Pass Play #34 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Eludes pressure, throws ball away.
Pass Play #35 (2nd and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Great touch to loop pass over defender and right to WR. Gain of 8, but tackled inbounds.
Pass Play #36 (3rd and 2): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Throws a Quick Out, on the money, gain of 5, out of bounds. Long throw from left hash to right sideline.
Pass Play #37 (1st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Throws Medium Out, ball is high and would’ve been a fantastic catch for the WR. Not an accurate throw.
Pass Play #38 (2nd and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Threads the needle between 3 defenders, beautiful ball, but also a fantastic diving catch. Big gain of 22.
Pass Play #39 (1st and Goal from the 3): Shotgun, empty set. Throws fade deep enough that only WR could get it, but WR wasn’t open and didn’t make it there so ball is incomplete. Not a bad throw. Safe, smart.
Pass Play #40 (2nd and Goal from the 3): Singleback, 3WR, TE. Awesome TE Screen. Tebow takes snap and immediately rolls left, WRs all running routes to left. Tebow turns back towards right and throws back to TE who is wide open and has two blockers. Ball was almost too slow, but just fast enough that TE catches and gets into Endzone for the TD.
Tebow runs a QB Power on the 2PC, easily gets in. He is a very physical runner for sure. The game is now tied at 15, and we’re going to OT.
Pass Play #41 (3rd and 5): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Quick pressure, sack. Loss of 3 yards.
The Broncos ran 5 runs and 1 pass in OT. None of the 5 runs were Tebow.
Overall, Tebow is not a good passer. He woefully misses at times, and he struggles to find the open WR. If memory serves, he threw two passes from under center in the entire game. Telegraphing your play’s intentions will hurt the Broncos, as it did today. That said, much of the game was spent playing catchup, so throws were going to come anyway, and Shotgun clearly makes Tebow most comfortable. Tebow has poor velocity on many throws in my opinion, and his accuracy is very hot-and-cold. Like Michael Vick, he is dangerous on the ground. He is elusive in the pocket, but that also leads to sacks when he can’t escape. He often takes too long to make a decision. This results in open windows closing before he can make the throw. This problem is magnified by his slow release. The “spread” passing attack of the Broncos also does the OL no favors. Pressure was an issue all day, and the Dolphins exceeded their season sack-total (8) in this game alone (9). Everyone wants to take a side with Tebow. You either love his passion, work ethic, leadership, and toughness, or you hate his inaccuracy, slow release, weak arm, and poor footwork. In my opinion, Tebow is all of the above. He’s both everything his fans say he is and everything his critics say he is. If the Dolphins can simply recover an onside kick, Tebow loses 15-7 against arguably the worst team in the NFL. Obviously, the story didn’t turn out that way, and Tebow is now “(1-0)” as a starter. I look forward to seeing him this week against the Lions, as they are much better defensively than the Dolphins are. That said, I don’t expect him to have much success. He just has too many deficiencies as a passer. Tebow is an exciting and polarizing player, and in my opinion, he has value in the NFL as the ultimate Wildcat orchestrator. His combination of passing and running is enough to be deadly as a special package weapon, but not enough to be an effective full-time QB.
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