Friday, December 16, 2011

What is Wrong With the Cowboys Defense?

There has been a lot of discussion lately about the Cowboys Defense, Rob Ryan, and late Cowboys collapses. The defense has steadily eroded over the course of the season, and many are saying that Rob Ryan is "overrated and overmatched" lately. Is that true? The short answer is no, but it's more complicated than that. Let me give you my perspective on the issues that are dragging the Cowboys Defense (and by extension, the entire team) down.

Rob Ryan is a great defensive coordinator. I believe that as strongly today as I did early in the season when I was shocked by the abrupt turnaround of the Cowboys defense. In case anyone has forgotten, the Cowboys defense of 2010 was the worst in franchise history and ranked in the bottom 5 of the NFL. Only the abysmal Houston Texans Defense of 2010 was noticeably worse.

The Cowboys' offseason didn't help matters much, either. Out went Stephen Bowen, their best DE, and he was replaced by Kenyon Coleman who came over from the Browns. Coleman has been solid this year, but Bowen was among the tops at his position in PFF's 2010 grades. Meanwhile, Alan Ball was replaced at FS by Abram Elam. Ball was arguably the worst Safety in the NFL last year, so anybody would've been better than him. Elam hasn't played all that well this year, but he has been mainly valuable from organization and knowledge standpoints. That's the full extent of starter turnover from the worst defense in Cowboys history. I don't care how good a coach is, there's no one out there that can magically make bad players into good players. Can coaches come in a utilize players in a more effective way? Sure. And that's what Ryan has done this year. The Cowboys defense looked like an entire new unit early in the season. The run defense was elite, the secondary was in the upper-half of the NFL, and their stinginess was complimented by an ability to force turnovers. Lately, they are nothing like that. So what has gone wrong?

Many writers are catching onto the fact that Ryan cannot be blamed entirely for the defense's struggles of late. They realize that the defense is basically no different from what it was in 2010, and so why should we expect it to be good? However, no one has addressed the reason why the defense has faded over the duration of the season. So what is the reason for the decline?

Let's talk hypothetically for a minute. Let's say that you are some po-dunk little WAC school and you have a Bowl Game against a national powerhouse. In fact, Boise State-Oklahoma from a few years back is a perfect example. No one thought that Boise State was a better team than Oklahoma, and they probably weren't. But they were able to hang with Oklahoma and ended up winning the game. How? They pulled out every single one of their tricks, and they were able to outweigh their talent deficiencies by out-scheming and confusing their opponent. And that's a sensible strategy. If you're overmatched, what's your best chance of winning? By doing tricky things that the opponent is not ready for.

The point of that little story is that it is a perfect representation of the Cowboys defense this year. They started off the year by having success largely due to their ability to confuse opponents with a "smoke and mirrors" scheme. Opponents were often very confused and were unable to figure out how to attack the defense. However, scheming your way to success can only last for so long. At some point, you run out of new tricks and everyone has seen your full arsenal. At that point, the jig is up and you're going to get burned.

The sneaky blitz that befuddled Matt Stafford early in the season isn't going to work against Eli Manning, because Eli noticed when watching film that one WR was minimally covered. The first time around, the QB is forced to read, react, and solve the problem extremely quickly. He is less aware of things and more focused on not being decapitated by DeMarcus Ware. But down the road, the OL knows what's coming, they can block Ware for an extra half-second, and the QB knows to look for the WR who will be wide open. They hit that play and people say "man, the defense sucks! Rob Ryan is an idiot!" But really, it's the same exact play that forced a turnover a few weeks prior.

So now what do you do? You have no more tricks up your sleeve, because you used them to get to this point. If you hadn't used them, you'd already be out of the Playoff picture. But now, you're screwed because your players are generally below-average and there's no more scheming you can do to help them. Other coaches get paid to. You can't outsmart everyone 19 times in a row. At some point, players have to win their individual battles, and the Cowboys defenders are unable to do that. And that brings us to the heart of the issue: poor talent on defense. You can cover it up with smoke and mirrors for a little while, but that strategy can't work forever. It's a mirage. Unfortunately for Rob Ryan and the rest of the Cowboys organization, until the defense gets upgraded, the Cowboys defense will continue to struggle, because that's what kind of a defense they really are. Ryan did a magnificent job early in the year, but at this point, he's just bailing water out of the boat, much like Wade Phillips was near the end of his tenure in Dallas.

Speaking of Wade, let's look at Wade. He was the constructor of the 2010 Cowboys defense. It was awful, as we know. Did he magically get smarter overnight when he moved to Houston? Because the Texans' defense is one of the best in the league this year after being even worse than the Cowboys last year. The answer is no, he's the same guy he was when he was in Dallas. The difference is that the Texans spent their entire offseason focused on improving their defense. They drafted J.J. Watt, Brooks Reed, Brandon Harris, Rashad Carmichael, and Shiloh Keo with their first 5 picks. They also signed Jonathan Joseph, who Greg Cosell calls the 2nd-best CB in football right now. Daniel Manning also was signed from Chicago, and he was very highly-graded by PFF in 2010. Add those guys to people like Mario Williams, Connor Barwin, DeMeco Ryans, and Brian Cushing, and you've MASSIVELY upgraded your talent. Has Wade helped? Sure, he's a good defensive coordinator. But the main difference is a major disparity in defensive talent. The Texans now have it, and the Cowboys still don't.

Here's my bottom line: don't blame Rob when you haven't given him anything to work with. The Cowboys went extremely offense-heavy in the draft and didn't have any cap room to get premier defenders in free agency. They are stuck in this boat no matter who is the coach. Can Rob Ryan evaluate talent and draft a great crop of defenders in 2012? We'll see. But to this point, Rob Ryan has done nothing but make this defense as good as it possibly can be, so there's no reason to criticize him as a coach. I'm thrilled to have him and I know he'll maximize whatever we have. It's up to the front office to give him a higher starting talent level to maximize though. So if you want to complain about the Cowboys defense, don't talk to Rob. Talk to Garrett, Jerry, and the scouting department. They are in charge of personnel, so they have to take the blame for having bad defensive personnel. That said, I trust that Garrett will continue to build this team and move it in the right direction. It just won't be a finished product this year, or maybe even next year, and fans need to understand that. It's a "process" as Garrett says, and we have to follow the process to its conclusion. In Year 1 of Garrett, I am very encouraged by the team, and I look forward to many more years of Garrett-led enjoyment.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Shutdown Corner Week 15 Preview Podcast with Greg Cosell

Here are the things that really interested me. If you want the full story, listen for yourself here:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/The-Shutdown-Corner-Week-15-Preview-Podcast-with?urn=nfl-wp13946

Cosell says that the Cowboys have been playing a lot of many lately, and "at some point, you have to win your matchups." I agree. Only so much Rob Ryan can do. Problem is the secondary just being flat-out beat.''

Cosell LOVES Sean Lee. Says he's basically carrying the Cowboys' ILBs and that Bradie James and Keith Brooking are really struggling (never heard that before... sigh...).

Greg says that right now, Jonathan Joseph is the 2nd-best man CB in the NFL, only behind Revis. I agree.

Poise is the name of the game for T.J. Yates, Greg says. He's already doing a lot of the little things right, and it allows him to be successful already in his young NFL career. Cosell says Yates' 4th Quarter performance was the most impressive of Week 14. Eat your hearts out, Eli and Tebow.

Greg says he is continually impressed with Cedric Benson. Views him as a foundation back who can carry a big load and succeed.

Jennings is the one receiver on the Packers who can win vertically against man coverage when left in isolation, Cosell thinks. Says other WRs generally make their deep plays as a result of playing in combination with other receivers. That's a nice way of saying "system guys" in my opinion.

Part of the Raiders' unraveling lately is Palmer's fault, and Greg says the issue is that he is a very rhythm-based passer who hasn't been able to get into his rhythm lately.

Cosell says that young QBs always look better when they have mobility. Says the real test for Tebow will be down the road. In Year 4, will Tebow still be as effective as he is today? Good question.

Greg Cosell cannot speak highly enough about Patrick Peterson. Says he's being trusted like Deion was, and similar to how Revis is trusted nowadays. Daryl Washington gets big praise for his play as a LB.

Rob Gronkowski is 275 pounds. Just think about that.