Shutdown Corner Week 8 Preview Podcast with Greg Cosell

Here are the highlights from another awesome hour of knowledge from Greg Cosell with host Doug Farrar. If you'd like to give it a listen yourself, here's the link: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/The-Shutdown-Corner-Week-8-Preview-Podcast-with-?urn=nfl-wp10514

- Greg is not a DeMarco Murray believer. He views him as a straight-line runner who lacks lateral agility. He cited one play in which Murray ran wide and "needed 5 or 6 steps" to change direction back towards the inside. There are two possible plays that Cosell could be referring to, and I think he is overstating his point. I would agree that Murray didn't burst with change of direction on either play, but the one was a blocking breakdown and the other I would say showed some good vision and patience. I will be interested to see more of Murray in the future and see if his lateral agility is truly problematic as Cosell believes it to be. Having just watched all of Murray's carries back-to-back, I will say that a lot of his runs were one-cut or no-cut. There weren't really any LeSean McCoy or Wes Welker-esque stop/start short-area burst runs. What Murray does have going for him though, is a fantastic size/speed combination. His 4.37 40 yard dash time, combined with his 213-pound build, gives him a fantastic Speed Score of 113. This is evident in the Rams game, where he was able to both outrun people and also knock them over. I believe Murray has a real shot at becoming something special.

- Doug and Greg discussed Josh Freeman's struggles (again). Freeman's QB coach apparently came out and said that Freeman needs to be more fundamentally sound on his throws. Cosell disagrees, citing poor decision-making as the problem. The bottom line is that Freeman has not played well this year and Cosell thinks that you have to start having serious concerns about him if he continues to struggle the way he has so far.

- A minor, but intriguing storyline that's popped up lately is that of the Chiefs' resurgence. Cosell says that the big change lately is that their defense is finally playing well. He says that the light appears to be finally coming on for former #3 overall pick Tyson Jackson, who to this point has been a massive bust. LB Derrick Johnson also gets credit from Cosell for being a very good player who often goes unnoticed.

- Kevin Kolb is not a starting-caliber QB in Greg's opinion, largely due to his inability to function with bodies around him. Cosell says that this was a concern in Philadelphia and one that potentially could've been fixed with coaching, but Kolb just has never progressed. Lack of arm strength and "an inability to make stick throws" also plague Kolb.

- Cosell LOVES Christian Ponder. He says that Ponder's ability to throw while on the run is fantastic, and that the Vikings use of roll-outs and PA is absolutely playing right to his strengths. Cosell says that while Ponder doesn't have a cannon, he is a smart, mobile, and accurate QB who has enough arm strength to be functional.

- Greg pulls no punches with the Dolphins, stating that both of their Safeties are "not starting-caliber NFL players" and that LBs Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett are playing poorly this season.

- Matt Stafford is quietly regressing as the season goes on, Cosell says. "You look at his arm [strength], and it's so impressive that it's easy to overlook his deficiencies." Greg thinks it's no coincidence that the Lions have experienced a losing slide lately given what he sees from Stafford, because their running game is not one that can be relied on.

- Cosell says that Brady has scored 8 TDs (7 pass, 1 rush), thrown 0 INTs, and is completing 70% of his passes against the Steelers since 2007. Unreal.

- Greg says that the Bengals' usage of Andy Dalton is phenomenal so far. They recognize his strengths and weaknesses, and they cater to them. Tons of throws that only travel about 10 yards in the air.

- Cosell is not a Cam Cameron fan. He thought that the route concepts utilized by the Ravens offense was like watching "prehistoric football." He isn't a Joe Flacco fan from what I inferred, but he did say that the Ravens' WRs are not doing him any favors, and neither is Cam Cameron. Cosell says that Anquan Boldin is a "guy who thrives in the Slot, and isn't really an outside guy." Ouch.

EDIT: I loved Cosell's analogy of run defense and pitching. He said that you can achieve run defense by scheme alone to a certain extent, but at some point, you have to be able to get off blocks and win one-on-one matchups. Cosell likens this to pitching, saying that you can do a lot of different things to get by with a problematic pitcher, but at some point, he's going to have to throw a fastball and he's going to have to be able to be at least somewhat successful with it. If you can't win one-on-one matchups, or if you can't throw a good fastball, you're really just fighting a losing battle, and there's nothing that scheme can do to fix that.

Tim Tebow vs. MIA Week 7 2011

The following is a play-by-play breakdown of Tim Tebow's performance against the Dolphins. At the end, I give a summary of my thoughts on him as a player based on my evaluation. I am not an expert QB scout by any means, but I feel like I have a decent grasp on what to look for and what should be expected of an NFL QB. So without further adieu...

Pass Play #1 (2^nd and 7): Shotgun, empty-set. Free rusher pressures Tebow, instead of eluding (as he should be able to do), he starts retreating backwards and throws a weak and inaccurate pass off of his back foot. Inaccuracy prevented potential Pick-6. Horrible mechanics, horrible decision.

Pass Play #2 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 3WRs, TE-RB flankers. PA. Looks downfield, then pump fakes and steps forward through collapsing pocket. Good pressure awareness. Runs for 13 yards. Designed pass, didn’t choose to throw. All-22 shows that Tebow had a WR WIDE OPEN 20 yard down the middle of the field. There was literally no one within 10 yards of him in any direction. Missed opportunity for a huge play.

Pass Play #3 (2^nd and 11): Shotgun, 3WRs, TE-RB flankers. PA roll-out left. Slot WR and LWR comeback both viable options, but Tebow opts not to throw and instead takes a 1 yard gain on the ground. TE looked like first read, but he was blanketed. That caused breakdown in play.

Pass Play #4 (3^rd and 10): Shotgun, 3WRs, TE-RB flankers. Hits Slot WR on Slant-Stop route over the middle. Throw a little low, somewhat weak.

Pass Play #5 (2^nd and 12): Shotgun, 4 WRs, RB flanker. Pumps to RWR running screen, then does a weird 360 spin, then throws falling-away jump pass to RB Screen. Throw high, slowed RB down, lost potential yardage (not much though).

Pass Play #6 (3^rd and 11): Shotgun, empty-set. Tebow has time to read and make a throw, doesn’t, then does 360 spin to avoid rusher. Pressure soon sacks him for 6 yard loss. TE came open early, WR came open late, and All-22 shows another WR came open in between. That last option I mentioned was WIDE OPEN in the Endzone. Missed long TD opportunity. All 3 options were viable in my opinion. Sack causes 49-yard FG instead of 43-yard FG. FG is missed. Dumb play on Tebow’s part. If nothing else, should’ve thrown ball away, but the lack of positive yardage when he had 3 good options is inexcusable.

Broncos have run 14 offensive plays thus-far. 0 passes with Tebow under center.

Pass Play #7 (2^nd and 6): I-Form, 2WR, 2RB, TE. PA. Quickly flushed left by rusher, nice touch pass to RB safety valve. Great accuracy while on the run. Led RB perfectly to allow for YAC, ensured that trailing defender had no shot at whap/INT.

On the next play, McGahee gains 12 yards from Singleback set. While I can’t say that the fact that Tebow actually attempted a pass from under center on the previous play had an influence on the poor run D, it theoretically could’ve helped soften up the defense some. Instead of playing 100% run when Tebow is under center, the defense now must respect the pass as well to a certain degree, and that should help the run game.

Pass Play #8 (2^nd and 10): I-Form, 2WR, 2RB, TE. PA. Lots of time in the pocket. Throw is basically a deep out (25 yard throw to left sideline). WR reached out for it, but dropped the pass. I believe that it was a catchable ball though, and given the difficulty of the throw, heck of a pass by Tebow. Velocity was not very good, but accuracy was great.

Pass Play #9 (3^rd and 10): Shotgun, 3WR, TE, RB flanker. Late Safety blitz hits Tebow as he’s throwing, short pop-up ball should’ve been picked by LB, but was dropped. Referees calls RTP for hit to Tebow’s head. Slow release was a problem. I believe that a quick-release QB would’ve gotten the ball out without issue.

Pass Play #10 (1^st and 10): I-Form, 2WR, 2RB, TE. PA. RB Screen. Tebow throws the pass badly over RB’s head. Broncos called for ineligible man downfield, which was due to the pass taking too long to come out (OL ran downfield to block after waiting a set amount of time). That said, Tebow had to wait for RB to come open. Timing issue not his fault.

Pass Play #11 (2^nd and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Poor mechanics, throws ball as he’s falling away. Despite that, the Short In is complete for a 5 yard gain. Holding on RT negates the play.

Pass Play #12 (2^nd and 20): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. After holding onto the ball for too long, he shows Vick-like elusiveness in the pocket. Escapes and runs for 21 yard gain. Really impressive run. All-22 shows some open downfield WRs though. If he’s going to be a QB, he needs to be able to find and make the throws that are available.

Pass Play #13 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Delayed blitz sacks Tebow for a loss of 8 yards. RB checkdown seemed viable even with pressure. Would’ve taken a quick release though, and that’s not something he has.

Pass Play #14 (2^nd and 18): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. A couple options were open for short gains, but time in the first half is winding down so smart to not throw and have them get tackled inbounds. Tucks and runs out of bounds for 4 yard gain.

Pass Play #15 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 2WR, TE, 2RB flankers. Deep throw lands about 10 yards to the left of the WR. Ugly looking ball, overly arched to accommodate for lack of arm strength in my opinion. Looked like WR kind of stopped on the route and also seemed like a QB/WR miscommunication. That said, other WR was WIDE OPEN over the middle, just underneath targeted WR. Could’ve been a 20+ yard gain. Not good vision so far.

Pass Play #16 (3^rd and 4): Shotgun, 3WR, 2RB flankers. If any WRs were open, they were downfield and off camera. Sacked for loss of 5 yards.

Pass Play #17 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Throws deep, out of bounds. Poor decision, poor throw. WR not open, two underneath routes were open.

Pass Play #18 (3^rd and 8): Shotgun, 3WR, 2RB flankers. Throws deep, WR very open, but not wide open. Overthrown by 5 yards. Would’ve been a TD. Very poor throw. Also had man very open underneath as well. If you can’t make the long throw, at least take the short one for the easy First Down.

Pass Play #19 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 2WR, 2TE, RB flanker. WR open short over the middle, Tebow throws the ball away.

Pass Play #20 (3^rd and 11): Shotgun, 3WR, 2RB flanker. Throws deep for WR Corner, but falling away from pressure as he throws. Ball lands just short of diving WR. Given the fact that the ball actually traveled pretty far downfield despite Tebow getting crushed as he threw it, not a bad effort. Still incomplete though.

Pass Play #21 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Throws short comeback route to WR on left sideline. Ball literally hits WR in chest and bounces off. Can’t fault Tebow this time.

Pass Play #22 (2^nd and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Easy throw over the middle to wide open WR. Dolphins showing signs of prevent mode, so short throws will come easy. That said, throw was on time and accurate. 16 yard gain.

Pass Play #23 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Worst throw of the day. WR WIDE OPEN on sideline, ball goes probably 10 yards over his head, out of bounds. Awful, just awful. Would’ve been a 30+ yard gain easily given how open he was.

Pass Play #24 (2^nd and 10): Shotgun, 3WR, TE, RB flanker. Hesitates to throw short ball, flushed out of pocket to his left, throws to TE who’s about 15 yards downfield. Ball is short and wide. Another really poor throw.

Pass Play #25 (3^rd and 10): Shotgun, 3WR, 2RB flankers. Sacked fairly quickly for loss of 5 yards. All-22 shows that nobody was open.

The Broncos now have the ball with 5:23 left in the 4^th Quarter, down 15-0.

Pass Play #26 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Throws the Deep Comeback, accurate, but not a lot of velocity. Gain of 15.

Pass Play #27 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Throws short checkdown to RB, gain of 9, tackled inbounds.

Pass Play #28 (2^nd and 1): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Nobody open on screen, Tebow looking downfield for big play. Not there, pressured, throws away as he’s hit.

Pass Play #29 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Beautiful pass to hit the WR in stride on the Deep In. Allowed for HUGE YAC. About a 20 yard throw is good for 43 yards thanks to good WR effort but also a great pass.

Pass Play #30 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Broken play, Tebow started walking forward to call out protection to OL, ball is snapped. Tebow flustered and sacked, loss of 6.

Pass Play #31 (2^nd and 16): Shotgun, empty set. Looks downfield, then decides to tuck and run. Gets out of bounds, gain of 13.

Pass Play #32 (3^rd and 3): Shotgun, empty set. Eludes dead-to-rights sack, flushed out to his right, makes a tough throw (running to his right and throwing to his right with his left). Almost led WR too much, but WR makes the diving grab for the TD.

With 2:43 left, the Broncos elect to Onside Kick. They are trailing 15-7 and have no timeouts. Miami fumbles the catch and the Broncos recover. Of course.

Pass Play #33 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Short Comeback to WR, gain of 7. WR cuts inside and is tackled inbounds.

Pass Play #34 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Eludes pressure, throws ball away.

Pass Play #35 (2^nd and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Great touch to loop pass over defender and right to WR. Gain of 8, but tackled inbounds.

Pass Play #36 (3^rd and 2): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Throws a Quick Out, on the money, gain of 5, out of bounds. Long throw from left hash to right sideline.

Pass Play #37 (1^st and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Throws Medium Out, ball is high and would’ve been a fantastic catch for the WR. Not an accurate throw.

Pass Play #38 (2^nd and 10): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Threads the needle between 3 defenders, beautiful ball, but also a fantastic diving catch. Big gain of 22.

Pass Play #39 (1^st and Goal from the 3): Shotgun, empty set. Throws fade deep enough that only WR could get it, but WR wasn’t open and didn’t make it there so ball is incomplete. Not a bad throw. Safe, smart.

Pass Play #40 (2^nd and Goal from the 3): Singleback, 3WR, TE. Awesome TE Screen. Tebow takes snap and immediately rolls left, WRs all running routes to left. Tebow turns back towards right and throws back to TE who is wide open and has two blockers. Ball was almost too slow, but just fast enough that TE catches and gets into Endzone for the TD.

Tebow runs a QB Power on the 2PC, easily gets in. He is a very physical runner for sure. The game is now tied at 15, and we’re going to OT.

Pass Play #41 (3^rd and 5): Shotgun, 4WR, RB flanker. Quick pressure, sack. Loss of 3 yards.

The Broncos ran 5 runs and 1 pass in OT. None of the 5 runs were Tebow.

Summary:

Overall, Tebow is not a good passer. He woefully misses at times, and he struggles to find the open WR. If memory serves, he threw two passes from under center in the entire game. Telegraphing your play’s intentions will hurt the Broncos, as it did today. That said, much of the game was spent playing catchup, so throws were going to come anyway, and Shotgun clearly makes Tebow most comfortable. Tebow has poor velocity on many throws in my opinion, and his accuracy is very hot-and-cold. Like Michael Vick, he is dangerous on the ground. He is elusive in the pocket, but that also leads to sacks when he can’t escape. He often takes too long to make a decision. This results in open windows closing before he can make the throw. This problem is magnified by his slow release. The “spread” passing attack of the Broncos also does the OL no favors. Pressure was an issue all day, and the Dolphins exceeded their season sack-total (8) in this game alone (9). Everyone wants to take a side with Tebow. You either love his passion, work ethic, leadership, and toughness, or you hate his inaccuracy, slow release, weak arm, and poor footwork. In my opinion, Tebow is all of the above. He’s both everything his fans say he is and everything his critics say he is. If the Dolphins can simply recover an onside kick, Tebow loses 15-7 against arguably the worst team in the NFL. Obviously, the story didn’t turn out that way, and Tebow is now “(1-0)” as a starter. I look forward to seeing him this week against the Lions, as they are much better defensively than the Dolphins are. That said, I don’t expect him to have much success. He just has too many deficiencies as a passer. Tebow is an exciting and polarizing player, and in my opinion, he has value in the NFL as the ultimate Wildcat orchestrator. His combination of passing and running is enough to be deadly as a special package weapon, but not enough to be an effective full-time QB.